By Thomas Peretu
The emergence of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu as the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in 2023, signalled a new beginning in Nigeria’s quest to optimize Petroleum production in the country. The subsequent appointment of Sen. Heineken Lokpobiri (PhD) the minister of state for Petroluem (Oil) was indeed, a icing on the cake and a blessing in disguise. Why? Because he is an exceedingly experienced public servant whose amazing resume and track record is the envy of many. He came to office adequately prepared for the onerous task ahead. He delved into the vortex with his sleeves rolled up, ready for the onslaught. Through deliberate and calculated effort, he changed the trajectory of the energy sector, revamping our collective hope for brighter and greater future.
The government, in its wisdom introduced innovative, cutting edge ideas and initiated pragmatic policies that reversed the sloppy trend.
Indeed, Tinubu’s administration to a large extent, succeeded in attracting more investors to the country at a time when all hopes were lost due in part to ineffectual management of the energy sector.
Hitherto, the nation’s energy industry was totally prostrate as a result of the agonizing challenges that confronted it. Not even the enactment and introduction of the Petroleum Industry Act could solve the endemic problems of the oil sector. It’s an open secret that at the heighth its challenges three years ago, key industry players such Shell Nigeria and other International Oil Companies and oil servicing (ancillary) companies left the country in droves. Many of the companies divested their equity interests and portfolio investments in Nigeria. Obviously, disenchanted by the inclement business environment and socio-political landscape of the country to wit. All efforts by the previous administration to woo the IOCs back to the Niger Delta region proved abortive. The untold effect on the economy was better imagined than experienced as government fiscal and economic policies were were put on hold due in part to the opaque operational dystems of the oil industry. Not to mention the multiplicity of headwinds such as the monumental oil theft and vandalization of pipelines that became a common occurrence. Unscrupulous individuals took advantage of the situation to perpetrate their evil machination to fristrate the government. But thankfully the figures are looking good because a dynamic and visionary leader who has a theoretical as well as practical knowledge of the inner workings of the oil industry. So far,
Nigeria’s crude oil production is currently hovering between 1.7 and 1.8 million barrels per day, with the government targeting 2 million barrels per day by the end of 2025. This increase is driven without doubt by new investments, consolidation of anti-theft operations, and the establishment of regulatory frameworks may have aided the success of the government in oil sector; although recent disruptions like the strike at the Dangote Refinery have temporarily impacted production levels. However, the long-term goals of achieving 2.5 million barrels per day by 2026 and potentially up to 3 million barrels per day by 2030 is definitely on course.
Current production and recent trends
- Current output:
Approximately 1.745 to 1.8 million barrels per day, a mix of crude oil and condensate.
- Recent fluctuations:
Production dropped to 1.39 million barrels per day in September 2025 due to a strike at the Dangote refinery, but has rebounded since the strike was resolved.
- Year-on-year growth:
July 2025 saw a 9.9% year-on-year increase in output compared to July 2024.
Factors driving production
- Increased investment:
Deliberate policies and reforms have boosted investor confidence, leading to the approval of 28 new Field Development Plans in 2025, which are expected to add significant output.
- Reduced oil theft:
Enhanced security and new evacuation routes have significantly reduced crude oil theft, allowing more of the produced oil to reach terminals.
- Regulatory reforms:
Institutional and legal reforms are making the sector more attractive for investment and improving operational efficiency.
Future targets
- End of 2025: Aiming to reach 2 million barrels per day.
- 2026: Targeting 2.5 million barrels per day.
- 2027: Aiming for at least 2 million barrels per day.
- 2030: Aims for up to 3 million barrels per day.
- We must commend the government of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for the renewed zeal in confronting the hydraheaded challenges of Petroleum sector with innovation. Even though the nation is yet to meet its Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries OPEC quarters, it’s clear that the country will soon surpass its allotted portion due to the reforms and legal framework being implemented by Sen. Heineken Lokpobiri, the minister of state Petroleum (Oil). Our collective wellbeing as a nation is obviously looking pretty good because the minister is focused and understands the dynamics of the Petroleum Industry and how it has impacted the lives of the people.
- … Peretu, a journalist wrote from Abuja
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