Overview of Nigeria’s 2027 general elections: Is 2027 being engineered for crisis?

By Swill Mavua

Nigeria’s 2027 general elections are shaping up to be a pivotal moment in the country’s democratic journey, amid economic hardships, security challenges, and deepening political divisions. Scheduled for February 20 (presidential and National Assembly) and March 6 (governorship and state assemblies), the polls come at a time of widespread discontent with governance under President Bola Tinubu’s administration.

With preparations underway, the political landscape is marked by strategic maneuvering, while ongoing ethnic and religious tensions — particularly those involving Fulani herdsmen — cast a shadow over national stability. Tinubu’s push for reelection appears increasingly desperate, raising questions about whether systemic flaws and political tactics are setting the stage for electoral crisis.

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), under Chairman Prof. Joash Ojo Amupitan, has released a detailed timetable, emphasizing early planning to ensure credibility. Party primaries are set for May 22 to June 20, 2026, with nomination submissions in July 2026 and campaigns starting in September 2026. The commission is prioritizing technological enhancements, including a mock test of electronic transmission systems to verify reliability and transparency. A nationwide voter revalidation exercise is planned to clean up the register, addressing duplicates, deceased entries, and inaccuracies that have eroded public trust since 2011. INEC has also registered two new parties — the Democratic Leadership Alliance (DLA) and Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) — bringing the total to 21, signaling a broadening field.

Budget projections exceed ₦800 billion, defended before the Senate, with funds earmarked for logistics, security collaboration, and voter education. INEC is monitoring amendments to the Electoral Act 2022, which could mandate real-time electronic result transmission — a reform stalled in the National Assembly, fueling suspicions of deliberate delays to enable manipulation. Despite assurances of a “watershed” election, critics warn that without fixes, the process risks repeating the controversies of 2023, potentially triggering unrest.

The political terrain is increasingly polarized, with premature campaigns, defections, and coalitions reshaping alliances ahead of 2027. The All Progressives Congress (APC) is consolidating power through governor networks and strategic moves, positioning itself as dominant in the South while facing resistance in the North. Opposition parties like the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Labour Party (LP), and African Democratic Congress (ADC) are urged to unite, with the ADC absorbing figures like Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and others to challenge Tinubu. Warnings from PDP elders like Bukola Saraki highlight internal crises that could doom the party’s chances, risking a one-party state.

Politicians’ behavior reflects opportunism and ethnic/religious maneuvering. Defections are “engineered” to favor incumbents, as seen in states like Bauchi with probes and infighting. Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde’s assertion that “no matter how many defections are engineered, the Nigerian people will decide” underscores growing public disillusionment. Tribalism and religion are exacerbating divides, with calls for Northern Muslim candidates paired with Southern Christians to counter APC’s strategies. Overall, the landscape favours incumbency, but voters fatigue and resentment over economic reforms are sure to shift dynamics, if the elections are free and fair.

Security remains a critical wildcard, with herder-farmer conflicts and opening of armless citizens by armed Fulani herdsmen – often framed as “Fulani Islamic onslaught” – intensifying ethnic and religious tensions, besides activities of known terrorists network like Boko Haram. ISWAP and Lukarewa and their Islamitization agenda. Rooted in resource scarcity, desertification, and migration, these clashes have killed thousands, displacing communities in states like Benue, Plateau, and Kaduna. Recent attacks, such as the February 10, 2026, assault in Tse-Kaseve (Benue) killing six, including police, highlight the violence’s escalation. Fulani militias are accused of jihadist motives, with over 60,000 deaths from 2001-2018. An American Congress bill proposes labeling them terrorists, amid calls for intervention.

This insecurity intersects with politics. Northern leaders reject Tinubu’s bid, viewing it as insensitive to regional grievances. In the Middle Belt and South, attacks on Christians fuel narratives of genocide, potentially polarizing voters along religious lines. If unaddressed, these conflicts could disrupt elections in affected areas, amplifying crisis risks.

Tinubu’s Seeming Desperation for Reelection strategy prioritizes governor alliances over voter appeal, with APC chieftains like Abdullahi Ganduje endorsing him early. Critics label it insensitive amid emergencies, accusing the administration of “panic mode” reforms driven by 2027 fears rather than compassion. Northern figures like Nasir El-Rufai claim Tinubu has “no pathway” to victory, citing desperation in influencer engagements and structural collapses. Gestures like Igbo businessmen donating buses signal outreach, but rejection from Northern leaders and opposition coalitions suggest vulnerability. Overall, his bid appears calculated but strained by economic woes and regional pushback.

Is the 2027 Election Being Engineered for Crisis? The confluence of factors raises legitimate concerns that the 2027 elections could be engineered — or at least primed — for crisis. Stalled Electoral Act reforms, including mandatory electronic transmission, are seen as deliberate to enable rigging, with allegations of dual result sheets and IReV compromises. INEC’s history of “network glitches” fuels distrust, and without fixes, unrest is possible. Political confusion — defections, probes, and premature bids — appears strategic to demoralize opposition and voters. Security threats from herder conflicts could disrupt polling, while economic hardships might spark protests, echoing Madagascar’s 2025 upheaval.

X posts reflect fears of violence or coups if rigging occurs, with calls for mass turnout to counter manipulation. However, INEC’s preparations and opposition unity could mitigate risks if reforms pass. The real danger lies in elite self-interest overriding public will, potentially eroding democracy. While INEC aims for a credible process, the interplay of political desperation, security woes, and systemic flaws suggests high stakes. Nigerians’ resilience and international scrutiny may yet steer the elections toward fairness, but without urgent reforms, crisis looms.