On Saturday, September 21, 2024, Yiaga Africa deployed the Process and Results
Verification for Transparency (PRVT) methodology to observe the Edo State
governorship election. This involved 300 stationary and 25 roving observers,
covering a representative sample of polling units across all 18 LGAs. The PRVT
enables Yiaga Africa to independently assess the quality of election day processes
and verify the accuracy of the official election results as announced by INEC.
Yiaga Africa observers also deployed to the State and LGA results collation
centers to observe the process, ensuring timely and accurate reporting of the
election process. Yiaga Africa has successfully deployed this methodology in two
Presidential elections and sixteen off-cycle governorship elections.
Yiaga Africa’s election day situation analysis statement highlighted logistical
challenges that led to delays in the commencement of accreditation and voting
at various polling units across the state. Inadequate planning in the supply of
vehicles for transporting ad hoc officials and election materials, along with the
absence of accompanying security personnel, further exacerbated the delays.
Yiaga Africa also condemns acts of violence and disruption of voting and results
collation process by political thugs and hoodlums, particularly violence directed at
voters and election officials. These unwholesome acts undermine the integrity of
the elections. Yiaga Africa extends its sympathies to citizens and polling officials
who suffered severe injuries and loss of valuable properties due to these attacks
and violence. Yiaga Africa calls on security agencies to thoroughly investigate
these cases of attacks and intimidation against voters and polling officials.
Statement on INEC’s official results
Yiaga Africa’s estimates are based on official results announced at the polling
unit, from a representative random sample of polling units. As highlighted in our
pre-election report, Yiaga Africa will amongst other factors consider the quality of
election day processes in assessing whether the 2024 Edo governorship satisfies
the electoral integrity test. In this regard, Yiaga Africa considered the integrity of
accreditation, voting, counting, and collation of results.
INEC consistently applied its guidelines in managing the accreditation and voting
process in a significant number of polling units. Despite some isolated incidents
Post Election Statement on the September 2024 Edo State Governorship Election
of inadequate election materials, the BVAS machines functioned optimally, and
all voters in the queue by 2:30pm were allowed to vote, despite the late opening
of polls. The polling officials uploaded polling unit results on the IReV in a timely
manner, making it possible for citizens to access polling unit level results.
However, the incidents of results manipulation and disruptions during ward
and local government collation in Ikpoba/Okha, Etsako West, Egor and Oredo
LGAs, including intimidation of INEC officials, observers and party agents and
the collation of results contrary to the provisions of the Electoral Act and INEC
guidelines, severely undermine the credibility of the election results.
Inconsistencies in the officially announced results
Based on reports received from the sampled polling units, Yiaga Africa can project
the expected vote shares for each party within a narrow margin. However, Yiaga
Africa is only able to verify the election outcome if it falls within its estimated
margins. If the official results do not fall within Yiaga Africa’s estimated ranges,
then the results may have been manipulated.
According to INEC, the All Progressive Congress (APC) received 51.1% of the votes,
People’s Democratic Party (PDP) 43.3% of the votes, and the Labor Party garnered
4.0% of the votes. Based on reports from 287 of 300 (96%) sampled polling units,
Yiaga Africa’s statistical analysis shows inconsistencies in the official results
announced by INEC. For instance, the official results announced by INEC for
APC in Oredo and Egor, LGAs fall outside the PRVT estimate. In Esan West LGA,
the official results for PDP fall outside the PRVT estimates. Also, in Oredo LGA,
the official results as announced for LP fall outside the PRVT estimates. These
inconsistencies with Yiaga Africa’s PRVT estimates indicate that the results were
altered at the level of collation.
The disparities between the official results released by INEC and Yiaga Africa’s
PRVT estimates indicate manipulation of results during the collation process.
Yiaga Africa strongly condemns the actions of some biased INEC officials who
altered figures during collation including the actions of some security officials
who interfered with the collation process. Yiaga Africa notes that the cases of
disruption in Ikpoba/Okha, Etsako West, Egor, and Oredo LGAs in the course
of collation created opportunities for election manipulation, raising significant
concerns about the credibility and integrity of the results collation process.
Turnout Estimates
INEC’s turnout and rejected ballots for the 18 LGA released are consistent with
Yiaga Africa WTV PRVT estimates. Yiaga Africa is able to estimate that turnout
is between 20.9% and 24.1% (22.5% ± 1.6%), while INEC’s official result is 22.4%.
Similarly, Yiaga Africa estimates for rejected ballots are between 2.2% and 3.2%
(2.7% ± 0.5%).
Yiaga Africa notes that in terms of turnout, voters did not meet the resilience
test as voter turnout plummeted despite high PVC collection rates recorded
Post Election Statement on the September 2024 Edo State Governorship Election
for the governorship election. In this election, only 22.4% of the voters turned
out to exercise their civic rights, lower than the 27% turnout observed in 2020.
Nevertheless, Yiaga Africa commends the resilience of the voters who turned out
despite the rain and voting delays, staying back to fulfill their civic duties.
Recommendations

Yiaga Africa calls for the immediate investigation and prosecution of polling
officials and collation officers who are engaged in results manipulation and
flagrant violations of the guidelines on results collation.
Yiaga Africa calls on INEC to urgently clarify the inconsistencies in some of
the results, especially election results from Oredo, Egor, Esan West and LGAs.
INEC should issue detailed guidelines for exercising its powers to review
declarations and returns made contrary to provisions of the Electoral Act
and regulations and guidelines. This should include procedures for receiving
complaints, timeframe, format and who is eligible to submit complaints.
It is imperative to integrate the IReV and electronic transmission of results
into the electoral legal framework to confer legality on polling unit level
results uploaded on the portal. To this end, the National Assembly should
expeditiously amend the Electoral Act to make electronic transmission of
results mandatory.
Conclusion
As noted in our pre-election reports, Yiaga Africa emphasized that the 2024 Edo
governorship election would be assessed against three key parameters: the
resilience test, impartiality test, and integrity test.
On the resilience test, despite early warnings of potential violence and adverse
weather conditions, voter turnout was low. While voters were given the
opportunity to exercise their rights, many chose not to participate, resulting in
a partial failure of the resilience test. Nevertheless, Yiaga Africa commends the
resilience and patience of voters who did turn out, particularly in the face of
logistical challenges and rainfall that caused late opening of polls.
On the impartiality test, Yiaga Africa monitored the role of security agencies
and their engagement with the process. While there were isolated incidents of
intimidation, the security forces largely acted professionally, ensuring a peaceful
and secure environment on election day. However, reports of interference
during the results collation process, including the denial of access to accredited
observers and party agents at collation centers, cast doubt on the neutrality of
some security personnel. Additionally, the disruption of result collation raises
concerns about the distribution and effectiveness of security deployment for the
election.
Lastly, on the integrity test, Yiaga Africa concludes that the 2024 Edo
governorship election fails the electoral integrity test due to the lack of
Post Election Statement on the September 2024 Edo State Governorship Election
transparency in the results collation process, which led to the manipulation of
results. While key processes such as accreditation, voting, counting, and recording
of results at the polling unit substantially complied with procedures, the results
collation process was compromised by the actions of some baised INEC officials in
connivance with other actors. This manipulation severely undermines the overall
integrity of the election.
As Yiaga Africa stated after the 2023 general elections and the off-cycle
governorship elections of Bayelsa, Imo, and Kogi states in 2023, as well as the
inconsistencies in the Edo state governorship election results, especially for the
LGAs identified in the reports, it is abundantly clear that drastic steps are now
needed for fundamental electoral reforms to restore public confidence in the
electoral process, especially the urgent need for political actors to change their
attitude towards politics.
The Watching The Vote project is “Driven by Data – For All Nigerians – Beholden to
None!”
Signed.
Dr. Aisha Abdullahi
Chair of the 2024 Edo
Election Mission
Samson Itodo
Executive Director,
Yiaga Africa
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